According to a report released this week by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), about one in six of all businesses in Canada are at risk of closing due to COVID-19. 

CFIB used results from a January 12-16 member survey where respondents were asked to what extent they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: "We are actively considering bankruptcy/winding down our business as a result of COVID-19". 

The industries the survey found most at risk were Hospitality at 33% and Arts/Recreation/Information at 28%. 

The per cent of businesses at risk of closing is highest in Alberta, with a mid-range estimate of 22%, or one in five. According to the latest data on the CFIB’s Smal Business Recovery Dashboard, 60% of independent Alberta businesses are fully open, 39% are at or above normal staffing and 20% at or above normal revenue.  

Canadian small business recovery by province (Small Business Recovery Dashboard/Screenshot)

The number of businesses at risk doesn’t include those that have already closed because of the pandemic.  

Business owners surveyed were also “asked to give the total number of positions that currently exist in their business, including filled and vacant employee positions, employees still tied to the business but not currently working (COVID-19, seasonal employees, etc.) and those of active business owners. Multiplying the number of businesses at risk by the average number of jobs gives an estimate of the total number of jobs at risk.” 

CFIB’s mid-range estimate of jobs at risk in Canada is 2,417,000 (20% of private sector jobs – about one in seven, or 13% of all employment in Canada). This is on top of any job loss that’s already happened because of the pandemic.  

Hospitality was the highest industry at risk, with 67% of jobs. 

Alberta is once again the highest province, with the mid-range estimate of 41% of private sector jobs at risk, or 624,998 total jobs.  

“2021 isn’t off to a great start for small business. After the tough financial and emotional slog to get through a historically difficult year, the beginning of 2021 feels more like the fifth quarter of 2020 than a new year,” said Laura Jones, CFIB’s executive vice-president.  

“It goes without saying that supporting local is more important than ever. Governments can also help small businesses replace subsidies with sales by introducing safe pathways for them to reopen to limited customers. There’s a lot at stake now from jobs, to tax revenue to support for local soccer teams. Let’s make 2021 the year we help small business survive and then get back to thriving.” 

Read the full report HERE.