In the COVID-19 conference today (Jan. 25), Health Minister Tyler Shandro gave an update on variants of the virus in Alberta. 

Shandro says these variants spread through the same methods as the current strain and have the same rate of mortality and severe outcomes, but they spread more easily from person to person. Two of concern emerged from South Africa and U.K. 

Alberta has identified 20 cases of the U.K. variant in the province and five of the South African variant. Shandro says that virtually all are linked to travel, but one of the U.K. variant has not been traced back, meaning it could be in the community now. Over 1000 lab samples underwent genetic screening last week. 

Minister Shandro says the skyrocketing of cases in U.K. is a result of the new variant, which has about a 30 to 50% higher rate of spread as the regular strain.  

Today, he presented some projections of what could happen in Alberta if we do not take precautions against the new variants. These numbers are if there were no health measures in place and are based on the U.K. variant. 

With no health measures, in six weeks we would have new cases per day 2,217 per day. With the variant, the projected numbers would be 10,217 per day. 

In eight weeks from 250 cases, our current strain would result in 1073 people needing hospitalization. The variant would be 3611. Shandro says that although the variants are not more deadly, more cases mean more hospitalizations and more deaths.  

For ICU admissions, over approximately seven weeks, the regular strain would have greater than 200 people needing critical care, and the variant greater than 800. 

Shandro says that steps are being taken to prevent these results. Work is being done to increase genetic screening in labs of test samples. They’re also making changes to the border pilot program. Now people must stay in isolation until they have had two negative tests, one right away and one after six or seven days. If someone receives a positive test, they’ll need to take the full 14-day isolation. Those in the program currently who’ve only had one test must immediately self-isolate until their second.  

The province will not be able to relax health restrictions yet, as the new variants are a complicating factor, and require us to move slower. Shandro says it will be very difficult to get the situation under control if we move too fast. 

Shandro assures Albertans that research is showing so far that the current vaccines, by Pfizer and Moderna, do protect against the variants.  

Alberta is still waiting on vaccines. No Pfizer vaccines will be coming this week and 70% of shipments will be reduced over next week. Shandro says we are ready to vaccinate people quickly when we get them. 

Alberta has added 362 new cases of COVID-19 today (Jan. 25), from about 7,200 tests completed, for a positivity rate of about 5%. 

 

Twenty-five more Albertans have died, between the ages of 41 and 100.

Watch the full update here: